SR
ENExample situation: A Q4 Target Gap or a Strategic Account
Question
“As the regional sales lead of a manufacturer working through a distributor partner, I am EUR 650,000 short of my annual target of EUR 2.4 million, with one quarter left. Every opportunity needs pre-sales support from the distributor's application specialist, who is available only 24 days until year end. The distributor (18% margin) decides how that time is used. My company can lend one of its own specialists for at most 6 days, only to support tenders, billed to the distributor at EUR 950 a day plus about EUR 1,400 in travel costs per assignment. Opportunities: A, university hospital (competitor's account): EUR 360,000 this year, 30% win probability, 12 days; five-year contract of EUR 360,000 a year; if won, the distributor must invest EUR 92,000 in the platform; a key reference site, three regional hospitals (about EUR 120,000 a year each) usually follow its choices, with an estimated 50% chance they switch to us within two years; the next chance to bid is five years away. B, regional hospital: EUR 210,000, 60%, 7 days; the distributor asks for an extra 10% discount, which it says would raise the win probability to 80%. C, private laboratory: EUR 140,000, 80%, 4 days. D, laboratory group: EUR 290,000, 40%, 9 days. E, cross-sell: a confirmatory test panel for 14 existing screening customers, EUR 16,000 a year each, 50% expected conversion, 7 days. F, upgrade: replacing 5 old platforms with the latest generation, EUR 45,000 each, 50% each, 5 days. Which customers should I focus on? How should I allocate the specialists' capacity? How do I get the distributor to commit to bidding on A? Should I grant the extra discount on B, and on what conditions? Is the target realistic, and how do I present the trade-off between Q4 results and the strategic account to my management?”
What to question
Can the distributor prove with evidence that the 10% discount raises the win probability on B to 80%? Can your specialists be used on D or B as well, or only on A? Can the E and F sales be delivered and invoiced before year end? What is the real probability of winning A?
How the depth changes
Focused → broader → deepest
Four perspectives quickly surface the core trade-off: the operational and practical angle, the assumptions behind the numbers, the financial impact,…
Nine perspectives add clarity and verifiability, a challenge to obvious bias, downside and extreme-risk scenarios, the market/customer angle,…
Fifteen perspectives further stress-test capital discipline, negotiation dynamics, operating economics, logical consistency, the…
Full report for this case
The Consilium-level report for this question, as the client received it, in the language of the question (French, 11 pages). The request number has been removed. The report was generated after the feedback published on the Testimonials page, so that feedback is not a review of this specific report.
Open the full report (PDF, French)
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